The GTA industrial market enters 2025 from a position of structural undersupply. Vacancy rates across core submarkets remain historically low, and while new supply has added incremental relief in select corridors, the fundamental imbalance between demand and available product persists.
Vacancy & Net Rent Trends
Toronto city core vacancy remains near zero for quality product. Prime net rents in the core are tracking $35–$42/SF NNN, with lease terms favouring landlords in most configurations. Brampton and Mississauga continue to lead in absorption, particularly for mid-bay and distribution product in the 20,000–80,000 SF range.
Durham Region Emergence
Durham Region has emerged as the cost-sensitive alternative for occupiers priced out of the 400 Corridor and western GTA. Ajax, Whitby and Oshawa submarkets are seeing increased tenant and buyer interest, with land pricing still reflecting a meaningful discount to Brampton and Vaughan.
Simcoe County & 400 Corridor
The 400 Corridor — particularly Innisfil, Barrie and Bradford — continues to attract institutional industrial users and developers. Highway access, available employment land and cost savings relative to the GTA core make this submarket compelling for logistics and distribution users evaluating 10-year lease or build-to-suit scenarios.
Outlook
Owners with quality product should expect continued pricing support and tenant demand through 2025. Buyers will face competitive processes for stabilized product. Developers and land buyers should focus on serviced, employment-designated parcels in growth corridors.